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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAS
August 22, 2022 09:02:12 AM
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DOLLAR VERY MUCH IN FOCUS THIS WEEK
August 22, 09:02:12 AM
Nick Quinn, Mentor
This will be an important week for the dollar. August volatility has gotten the bulls in the mood for a push past the July highs.
It is possible, but the rally from the 11th isn’t built on the strongest platform!
Jackson Hole marks the end of the week on Friday. Powell's speech will come right on the back of the highly anticipated PCE inflation readings. Any contradiction to CPI could really create some wild swings as the market tries to gauge just how hawkish Powell will sound.
Commercial Hedgers have still not shown much interest in reversing course for the dollar so I favor an increase in volatility rather than clarity of direction.
As the summer season approaches its end it’s easy to get sucked into thin markets believing you’re ‘in at the top’ or ‘bottom’.
Stay sharp as true trend support doesn’t really start till we drop back to the early 106’s.
Nick Quinn, Mentor
Hi I'm Nick and have been trading since 2008. I've traded most asset classes - equities, fixed income and commodities. However, my preference has always been spot market foreign exchange. My style is big picture macro position trading in CFD's and currency futures contracts.
BEARISH ON METALS
August 22, 08:55:10 AM
Max Norbury, Mentor
Now that we have just broken through the major median zone of the range, Platinum is seemingly weaker and the runaway train is speeding up.
Last week, the bearish bias down to the lower limit of the trend was achieved shortly after the report was released but instead of respecting the lower limit, it was in fact crushed!
Price came back to retest this area before plunging a further 7%. XPT currently trading at around 875.500.
This week I am looking for continued shorts in this precious metal and believe we could be on our way down to the lower equilibrium limit at approximately 830.000.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest in a month, increasing the opportunity cost for investing in precious metals leading to further liquidity flowing away and not into the market.
We also have the FED hanging over investor sentiment with the likelihood of a 50 basis point rise in September becoming evermore prominent.
The main focus this week remember will be on the discussions led by Fed Chair Powell when he addresses the annual global central banking conference in Jackson Hole on Friday. (Remember what was discussed last week on this topic, Friday will be a big one for policy decisions!)
Good luck folks and as always, trade safe.
Max Norbury, Mentor
Max Norbury - Expertise in Equilibrium theory, Market state-structure, Inter-market correlation, Multi-asset class portfolio management, Macro and Global econ and arguably the best entertainer in the trading-room. (Or so he likes think...)
- Forex / Stocks / Commodities
- Technical / Fundamental analysis
August 22, 07:52:48 AM
Shain Vernier, Mentor
Last week was rough for risk assets as crypto and shares posted significant pullbacks. For the US indices, the negative action snapped a four-week winning streak. Will “risk on” be back in vogue in the coming five days? Let’s check out the important economic events and see if we can spot a few potential market drivers.
Monday
The trading slate kicks off with a wide-open economic calendar. The headliner will be the PBoC Loan Prime Rate release out of China. PBoC officials announced a surprise rate cut last Monday in response to fresh COVID-19 challenges. Many analysts expect the PBoC to go dovish once again; if so, we could be in for some action in the yuan pairs and China50.
Key Markets: CNY pairs, China50, US indices
Tuesday
The Asia-Pacific session features the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Core CPI. If you’re trading the JPY, don’t look past this number! Although it’s listed as a peripheral metric, anything to do with inflation can quickly roil markets.
During the London trading day, service and manufacturing PMI statistics are due out. Be on the watch for volatility in the GBP as these reports hit newswires. In the US, New Home Sales (July) is scheduled for release. Analysts expect the figure to come in at 575,000, down from 590,000 in June. Given the contraction in US real estate and higher cost of capital, this number is poised to disappoint expectations. If so, the USD may experience weakness in anticipation of a Fed pivot from hawkish policy.
Key Markets: US30, US100, US500, FX majors, BoJ pairs
Wednesday
Mid-week trade features a modest lineup of official reports. The highlight will be Core Durable Goods Orders (July). Consensus estimates have this figure coming in at 0.2% from 0.4% month-over-month. Should the contraction be more severe than expected, the Wall Street talking heads will be screaming “recession!” from the mountaintops.
A bit later in the US session, Pending Home Sales (July) is due out. On a percentage basis, sales are actually projected to improve from -8.6% to -3.8%. Of course, home sales are still well off five-year averages for the season. And, don’t forget the EIA Crude Oil Inventory report!
Key Markets: US30, US100, US500, FX majors, WTI crude oil
Thursday
Thursday’s London session gets underway with Germany’s GDP (Q2). Figures are slated to come in flat year-over-year at 1.5%. On a quarterly basis, it’s anyone’s guess where these reports will actually land. However, with recession on everyone’s mind, German GDP is likely to drive action to the euro (EUR).
Later in the day, the ECB Account of Monetary Policy Meeting will be released to the public. Many think last week’s FOMC Minutes were the primary driver of USD strength; will this drive the EUR higher?
The American session features revised GDP (Q2). Most believe GDP to hold firm at -0.8%, down modestly from Q1’s -0.9%. Don’t be surprised if Q2 GDP is revised upward, in line with the skepticism from Jerome Powell and Biden administration before the initial release.
Key Markets: EUR pairs, FX majors, US indices, GOLD
Friday
Late-week trade begins with the Tokyo CPI and Core CPI (August). The market is expecting Core CPI to rise from 2.3% to 2.5% year-over-year. If this comes to pass, will the BoJ finally begin considering a rate hike toward the yen? It’s unlikely, but certainly possible.
The markets will be watching Friday’s US Core PCE Price Index (July) very closely. The number is projected to fall dramatically from 0.6% to 0.3%. Should this be the case, 2022’s Fed rate hikes will be lauded as successful. Falling Core PCE may be a precursor for a pullback in the August CPI number. Ultimately, this could be the beginning of the Fed walking back the hawkish narrative.
Key Markets: JPY pairs, GOLD, FX majors
Bottom Line
We are all set for another big week of action on the markets. Inflationary metrics will be critical, capped off by Friday’s US Core PCE numbers. It’s an excellent time to be in the markets, and we’ll see you in the trading room!
Shain Vernier, Mentor
Active trader, How To Trade (HTT) Mentor. University of Montana, Business Finance (2002). Participated in intercollegiate baseball, NWAC & NCAA 1997-2001. 10+ years of market experience, hybrid trader, combination of technical and fundamental analysis.
Explore the top five global events this week that may have a significant effect on the Forex market. If you'd like to explore more key global events on the horizon that could subtly shift or substantially shake up the financial markets, please click below.
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Find a trading strategy that suits your trading style and then, stick to it. If you don’t stick to a trading strategy and plan, you will most likely end up in thecycle of doom.
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To get your hands on MT4 or MT5 you will need to register with a trading broker. When you register with a broker, they will almost always usually provide you with your very own MT4/MT5 trading terminal – they will send you MT4 log-ins, and you can trade via a demo or live trading account. You can see a list of brokers we have comparedhere.
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If you are trading Forex, you are trading on the foreign exchange. On the foreign exchange, you are trading world currencies against each other. The Forex market is often referred to as the ‘FX market’. The Forex market is the most liquid market in the world, with over 6 trillion dollars traded on the market every single day! It’s bigger than the stock market!
Forex trading is the buying and selling between a forex ‘currency pair’ including the major currencies, the minor currency pairs and the exotics currency pairs. There are over 100 currency pairs and the most popular currency is the USD.
The most frequently traded forex pairs are: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD.
Minor pairs that do not include the U.S. Dollar. These pairs typically contain one of the other three major currencies: EUR, GBP, or JPY. Finally, exotic pairs include currency pairs from countries with a developing market presence, such as Sweden, Norway, or Mexico.
The Forex market is an excited and fast-paced market, hence, it appeals to a lot of ‘retail traders’. You probably have participated in the Forex market without even realising it. For example, if you are from the United Kingdom and you plan to go on holiday to the United States, you will of course need dollars (USD) to spend.
You might go online or to a currency counter to purchase USD and you would be doing so at the current exchange rate. Then, when you return home from your holiday, you might have USD left. You return to the currency counter and ask to change your leftover USD back into GBP, but whilst you have been away, the currency exchange rate has moved, meaning you can get back more GBP than you had originally used to purchase your USD, therefore, you have made a profit from your exchange.
The Forex market is unique as there is no central marketplace. This means all transactions are done electronically across networks. Also, unlike other markets, the Forex market can be traded around the clock 24 hours a day, 5 days a week (Monday – Friday).
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